What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - July 17, 2023Last week’s economic reporting included readings on month-to-month and year-over-year inflation and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

Month-to-Month Inflation Rises as Year-Over-Year Inflation Slows

The Consumer Price Index for June rose 0.20 percent in June as compared to May’s reading of 0.10 percent growth and expectations of 0.30 percent month-to-month growth. The core CPI reading, which excludes volatile food and fuel sectors, fell to 0.20 percent growth in June as compared to May’s month-to-month reading of 0.40 percent growth.

The year-over-year reading for the Consumer Price Index in June slowed to 3.00 percent growth as compared to May’s reading of 4.00 percent and analysts’ expected reading of 3.10 percent year-over-year growth.

The year-over-year reading for the Core Consumer Price Index showed 4.80 percent growth; analysts expected year-over-year inflationary growth of 5.00 percent. May’s year-over-year inflation reading showed 5.30 percent growth. Year-over-year readings show overall inflation trends without month-to-month volatility.

Rising interest rates did not appear to impact consumers’ enthusiasm. July’s preliminary index reading of 72.60 for the Consumer Sentiment Index was the highest reading published since September 2021. Analysts expected an index reading of 65.50 as compared to June’s reading of 64.40.

Mortgage Rates Nearing 7 Percent

Average mortgage rates rose last week and approached 7.00 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages according to Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey.  The average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 15 basis points to 6.96 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose six basis points to  6.30 percent. July 13 jobless claims will be published this week.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on home builder confidence in single-family housing market conditions, and government reporting on housing starts and retail sales. The National Association of Realtors® will release its monthly report on sales of previously-owned homes. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims are also expected.